ATCF Forecast Visualization

Storm Track Density Map

The density map visualizes the concentration of forecasted storm positions across all available models and run times, providing a comprehensive overview of potential storm paths.

Key Features:

• All-Model Inclusion: Incorporates data from all models, regardless of whether they are currently selected or visible on the main map.
• Time Range: Includes forecasts up to 120 hours (5 days) from the current displayed time.
• Recent Runs: Uses model runs from the past 12 hours to ensure relevance.
• Color Intensity: Darker colors indicate higher concentrations of forecasted positions.

How It Works:

1. The map area is divided into a grid of cells.
2. Each cell counts the number of forecast points falling within it.
3. Cells are colored based on point density, from light (low) to dark (high) blue.

Interpretation:

Areas with darker colors suggest higher agreement among models about the storm's potential path. However, it's crucial to consider that:

• Less intense areas are still possible storm paths.
• The density map doesn't indicate timing or intensity of the storm at each location.
• It should be used in conjunction with individual model forecasts and official warnings.

Cell Size Adjustment:

Adjusting the cell size allows you to balance between detail and clarity:

• Smaller cells: More detailed view, but may be slower to render.
• Larger cells: Broader trends, faster rendering, but less precise.

This tool aims to provide a quick, visual summary of forecast agreement and uncertainty in storm track predictions.